A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
