A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
