Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
